timing your technology reflection
This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. And the next Mark Zuckerberg wont create a social network. So you dont know the timing well enough to reliably launch. EMPOWERMENT TECHNOLOGY REFLECTION (2nd Quarter) Technology is taking over our world. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. ARPA-E PDs tend to agree with the bulk of reviewers, and they also tend to agree with scores in the upper tail of the distribution. Can you ask researchers if the time is ripe? In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. You cant possibly get a good technology going without an enormous number of failures. The use of lottery grants is one idea which has been proposed, to help break the over-exploitation fostered by peer review; the randomization gives disfavored low-probability proposals (and people) a chance. Browning did not read it as we read it now. Progress, then, depends on the unreasonable man. I basically think all the ideas of the 90s that everybody had about how this stuff was going to work, I think they were all right, they were all correct. Hrlein perceived a need for a set of mutually complementary institutions and trained personnel whose interaction produces the desired results. Informatio: The new language of science ( Hans Christian von Baeyer) 14-15 Open Document Technology, and its underlying aspects affect all of us as we go through the continuum of time. In recent years, I have been attracted back to academia. In many ways, technology simplifies life,and it has many beneficial effects to the community and the human condition. Reverse salients are areas of research and development that are lagging in some obvious way behind the general line of advance. The greater part of a century had to elapse before the vacuum tube arrived on the scene. It might be fairer to say that Edison was the very last first inventor of the electric light. 2). A valuable outcome is a result that has practical importance for clinical or preventive medicine and, implicitly, commercial value for industry. Yes). The word precursor is indispensable to the vocabulary of criticism, but one must try to purify it from any connotation of polemic or rivalry. Brand summarized the projects he saw there and Lab members extrapolations into the future which guided their projects, and added his own forecasting thoughts. Reflection can be valuable when the workgroup uses it to learn more about impact and to catalyze action toward a destination. And at some point, it does improve, and the first person to try at the right time may win the lottery; Palmer Luckey (founder of Oculus, sold to Facebook for $2.95$2.302014 billion in March20144): Heres a secret: the thing stopping people from making good VR and solving these problems was not technical. Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?). In this regard, it is amusing to note the exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019.). Were not sure what. Later: oh, apparently eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials? There are many books out there on self-reflection, self-awareness, and introspection, but we recommend the books below as resources to help you start your journey. An additional analogy from reinforcement learning is PSRL, which handles more complex problems by committing to a strategy and following it until the end and either success/failure. 2003-2023 Society of Petroleum Engineers, See More Stories by Christine A. Ehlig-Economides, Ehlig-Economides, C.A., and Halepaska, J.C.: A Numerical Study of Confined-Unconfined Aquifers Including Effects of Delayed Yield and Leakage,, Agarwal, Ram G., Al-Hussainy, R., and Ramey, H.J. Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. The difficulty is in coping with failure: even good options may fail many times in a row, and bad options may succeed, so options cannot simply be ruled out after a failure or two, and if one is too hasty to write an option off, one may take a long time to realize that, losing out for many turns. and what it isn't. Learning for the sake of learning. (And what about Douglas Engelbart, or Alan Kay/Xerox PARC, who explicitly aimed to skate towards where the puck would be?) . A further application of criterion 4 arises if theoretical infeasibility is demonstratedBut it is well to look on such negative proofs with caution. RFID chip timing systems accomplish this in a very elegant way. Certainty is irrelevant, you still have problems making use of this knowledge. PayPals major challenge, for example, was not finding a market like eBay power sellers, but coping with fraud as they scaled, which apparently was the undoing of any number of rivals., Personally, I was still using Dogpile until at least 2000.. Every Monday, they required Federal Express to prepay for the anticipated weekly usage of jet fuel. Consider the ill-fated eToys.com or Pets.com: was the investor right to believe that Americans would spend a ton of money online such as for buying toys or dogfood? Rather, this is how the process of invention and creation works. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. The auditor who went through the companys books concluded that it was entirely solventwhich isnt surprising, when you consider that the lands it owned in America now produce trillions of dollars in economic value. One could also say the same thing of China: countless European observers forecast that China was a sleeping giant which, once it industrialized & modernized, would again be a global power. Sunday Reflection: The Blessing of God's Timing. With optogenetics, people were trying to control brain cells with light going back to 1971. Positive feedback about physical-exam skills or clinical decision-making occurred during encounters, positive or constructive team-based feedback occurred immediately following encounters, and individualized constructive feedback occurred in one-on-one settings following rounding sessions. Well: researchers have a slight conflict of interest in the matter, and are happy to spend arbitrary amounts of money on topics without anything to show for it. Only then could the new technology claim to have drawn level with Babbages design ideas of a hundred years earlier. The problem was that some tests never exhibited the correct straight line for analysis, although it was always possible to find an apparent oneone that would lead, in many cases, to completely erroneous results. View 3 Samsung T7 Shield Check Price 4 Crucial X6 Portable SSD View 5 Western Digital My Book Check Price In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. From 1980 to 1983, she was an assistant professor at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks, where she became Petroleum Engineering Dept. Organizing a Reflection Paper 1 Keep it short and sweet. Right then, I made an incredible blunder. Balakrishnan and B V Sreekantan. Self-reflection is the simple and altruistic art of looking inward into one's true persona. But the value of Pets.com stock still went to ~$0. Look after a pet. Meaning to say the development of technology should have proper timing. Someone could have built the Rift in mid-to-late 2007 for a few thousand dollars, and they could have built it in mid-2008 for about $673.5$500.02008. Though not venture backed, Southwest Airlines was cofounded in 1967 by Herb Kelleher and of course has gone on to become a very successful business. The timeliness of your word is surely on point.". One thing that. The flowmeter did have a place in transient testing, though, but during drawdown, not buildup. Smartphones are an even bigger example of this. I think they were just early. I had thought, at first, that he was as unique as the phoenix of rhetorical praise; after spending a little time with him, I felt I could recognize his voice, or his habits, in the texts of various literatures and various agesIf I am not mistaken, the heterogeneous pieces I have listed resemble Kafka; if I am not mistaken, not all of them resemble each other. When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. Are we running out of oil and gas? What has changed since then is, no doubt, some improvements in the mathematics, but largely, I think wed all agree, better compute power and a lot more data. After solving a problem, humanity imagines that it finds in analogous solutions the key to all problems. Similarly, the benefit of taking Moores law seriously is that one can plan ahead to take advantage of it24 even if one doesnt know exactly when, if ever, it will happen. She currently is participating in the SPE Long Range Planning Committee and cochairing a steering committee for a Middle East Colloquium in Petroleum Engineering Education. And there were plenty of lucrative search engine founders (is Jerry Yang still a billionaire? Kuchuk, F.J., and Ayestaran, L.: Analysis of Simultaneously Measured Pressure and Sandface Flow Rate in Transient Well Testing, paper SPE 12177, prepared for presentation at the 1983 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, 58 October, San Francisco. Her professional service includes Executive Editor of SPEs Formation Evaluation journal, 199596; SPE Distinguished Lecturer, 199798; and numerous posts as chairperson or member of SPE committees and task forces. Indeed, its inherent in really transformative ideas that they look like bad ideasGoogle, Apple, Facebook and Amazon all did, sometimes several times over. Again, self reflection is not about building your "best life", it's about figuring out what type of person you want to become. After 20 years with Schlumberger in various positions, she returned to academia as a full professor of chemical engineering at the U. of Houston, where she has served as Director of the Petroleum Engineering Program as an adjunct professor since January 2000. One of the most basic reasons to begin self-reflection in your daily routine is that it can assist you in making sense of daily events. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. QR code? Today, I am not really a proponent of type-curve matching per se, but rather with using the derivative response to recognize flow regimes.13 We now can use data processing originally designed for convolution or deconvolution of downhole pressure and flow-rate data for analysis of production data.14 This approach is particularly effective in wells with permanent gauges. We often joke at a16z that there is a tendency to fight the last battle in an area in which one has long-standing professional exposure; the scars from previous mistakes run too deep and can make it harder for one to develop creative ways to address the business problem at hand. It seems a reasonable guess that the bottleneck will never again lie in hardware speeds and storage capacities, as opposed to purely logical and programming problems. : Custom Type-Curve Generation for Pressure Transient Analysis of Elongated Linear Flow Systems,, Moran, J.H., and Finklea, E.E. Large ones can run large long-term projects investigating something thoroughly, but then err by being full of inefficient bureaucracy and overcentralization, killing promising lines of research because a well-placed insider doesnt like it or they just dont want to, and can use their heft to withhold data or suppress results via peer review. (The best I can think of would be to sell any Murdoch stock you owned when you heard they were buying MySpace, but offhand Im not sure that Murdoch didnt just stagnate rather than drop as MySpace increasingly turned out to be a writeoff.) When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Cell phones, computers, radios, watches, and many other devices rely for their success on an electronic oscillator that produces an output with a precise frequency to generate timing pulses and synchronize events. Within industrial research organizationsand, implicitly, within academic onesHrlein called for special institutional arrangements to encourage appropriate interactions between chemistry and biomedicine. What is different? quick and timely) and also ecologically valid (i.e. For a recent timeline survey, see Forecasting Transformative AI: An Expert Survey, Gruetzemacher et al 2019, and for more, AI Impacts.org. Likewise, the idea of production-log testing was to use a flowmeter to measure the downhole flow rate during pressure-buildup tests, thereby eliminating the need for pressure-derivative analysis because the wellbore storage would be corrected by the flow-rate measurement, and an equivalent to the Horner plot would suffice. We just could never, never, never get it quite there., JL: The component cost. Even the major oil companies give lip service to the claim. BOYDEN: One way to think of it is that, if a scientific topic is really popular and everybodys doing it, then I dont need to be part of that. If 2020 has taught us anything, it's that the key is to stay nimble, adaptive, and be prepared for unexpected change. Maybe somebody found a new gene. Nanosystems on a chip, is said to be able to provide critical foundation to diagnostics biomarkers and point-of-care technologies as well as detection of pathogen. And, consistent with the idea that there is a large ineradicable element of chance to it, surveys of startups suggest that while there are individual differences in odds of success (skill), any founder learning curve (learning-by-doing) is small & success probability remains low regardless of experience (Gompers et al 2006/Gompers2010, Parker2011, Gottschalk2014), and experienced entrepreneurs still have low odds of forecasting startups achieving commercialization at all, approaching random predictions in non-R&D-intensive sectors (eg. While upper management panders to environmentalists, the young minions keep slogging it out, delivering the oil and gas that is desperately needed all over the world as though there will be no end to it. So for the most part, traders clone popular strategies, but with certain probabilities, theyll randomly explore rarer apparently-unsuccessful strategies. This has historically been less typical in the venture world, but, increasingly, as entrepreneurs take on more established industriesparticularly those that are regulatedbringing a view of the market that is unconstrained by previous professional experiences may in fact be a plus. Or were they lucky in trying at the right time, and merely captured all of the value, because a 99% adequate VR headset is worth 0%, and they added the final 1%? For many claims, there is no way to invest in an idea except by going all in and launching a company, resulting in extreme variance in outcomes, even when the idea is good and the forecasts correct about the (eventual) outcome. The course The ICT course was not really difficult, as I had a very good knowledge about the different types of technologies that were presented, but the idea of adapting them to my classroom got me thinking. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). After that, an explosion of new models presented on log-log coordinates appeared in the mushrooming well-test literature. Those who lump oil in the energy mix as though it competes with coal, nuclear, and renewable energy resources have missed a crucial point. Why would anyone think that the future of smartphones would be won by a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine? A place like Bell Labs benefits from remaining in contact with the needs of commerce, as it provides a check on lart pour lart pathologies, a fertile source of problems, and can feed back the benefits of mass production/experience curves. Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. But it is by no means obvious that it was unripe for Babbages research and development effort, if only it had been conceived in terms of a more severely delimited objective: the construction of a working model. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. Start a hobby. As a research manager with training and experience in pharmaceutical chemistry, a lively interest in medicine, and rapport with the medical community, Hrlein was well positioned to survey the field where chemistry and medicine joined battle against disease. Before that, everyone relied strictly on finding a straight line on a Horner plot3 (Fig. The timing software figures out what race number the ID corresponds to and adds a timestamp for that race number. (The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion). However, the pressure data showed the same oscillatory behavior. The benefit for someone like DARPA of a forecast like Moores law is that it provides one fixed trend to gauge overall timing to within a decade or so, and look for those dots which have lagged behind and become reverse salients.25 For an entrepreneur, the advantage of exponential thinking is more fatalistic: being able to launch in the window of time between just after technical feasibility but before someone else randomly gives it a try; if wrong and it was always impossible, it doesnt matter when one launches, and if wrong because timing is wrong, ones choice is effectively random and little is lost by delay. However, they also brought us cyber warfare, hackers, identity theft, cyber stalking, and a host of other bad things. In this edition, we are reminded that rigorous technical work is one of the pillars of our industry. After 7 of my 20 years with Schlumberger, I left transient-test analysis for several other pursuits, and as before, my timing continued to be great. It is not always as easy a task as it sounds. Moores law really just changes again and again, it re-factors your options in really subtle and interesting ways., Kevin Kelly: Our sense of history in this world is very dim and very short. Fedex, early on, couldnt make payroll and the founder famously kept the planes flying only by gambling the last of their money in Las Vegas, among other near-death experiences & crimesjust one of many startups doing highly questionable things.12 Both SpaceX & Tesla have come within days (or hours) of bankruptcy, in 2008 and 2013; in the former case, Musk borrowed money from friends to pay his rent after 3 rocket failures in a row, and in the latter, Musk reportedly went as far as securing a pledge from Google to buy Tesla outright rather than let it go bankrupt (Vance2015). We won't always understand God's timing, so we have to trust that it is best for us. Origins of Innovation: Bakewell & Breeding, Build something people want is not enough, The Psychology of Entrepreneurial Misjudgment, part 1: Biases16, Resistant protocols: How decentralization evolves, Technological convergence in drug discovery and other endeavors, Quantifying the evolution of individual scientific impact, Large teams develop and small teams disrupt science and technology, How DFS, poker, basketball, Starcraft and strong opinions, weakly held (SOWH) can help your startup, An Attempt at Explaining, Blaming, and Being Very Slightly Sympathetic Toward Enron, How Bubbles and Megaprojects Parallelize Innovation, Market Research, Wireframing, and Design, Spend twice as much effort every time you attempt to solve a problem, Why didnt electricity immediately change manufacturing? In Schlumberger at that time, there were two alternative technologies competing with pressure-transient-test analysis using the derivative. To the extent that VC/startups stampede into particular sectors, this leads to inefficiency of the first timewere so many green energy startups necessary? We do not know what a unicorn is like. You would have needed no other prophecies, no other predictions, no other details. Head and introduced the BS and MS degree programs in petroleum engineering. I was actually reading some earlier papers. Once the initial shock of the situation wore off, you'd start getting ready for work. . Pity the Scientist Who Discovers the Discovered, ignoring both mail order & Internet all the way until bankruptcy in 2010, eBay sellers like us so much theyre making their own promotional materials, The most successful people I know believe in themselves almost to the point of delusion, Why did we wait so long for the bicycle?, minor technical glitches derailed vital deals, borrowed money from friends to pay his rent, ensuring that no one becomes the next Gates, a has-been 1980s PC maker and an obscure search engine, Thiels definite vs indefinite optimism, DARPA paradigm in fostering AI & computing, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. Once, Freds luck at the gaming tables of Las Vegas helped to save the company from financial disaster. One reason is that our form of energy, oil, is misunderstood by most people, including many of us in the petroleum industry. Bloomberg News. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. What made them a success was that they happened to give the pinata a whack at the exact moment where some S-curves or events hit the right point. Critical problems are the research questions, cast in terms of the concrete particulars of currently available knowledge and technique and of specific exemplars or models (eg. When it was my turn, I couldnt resist pointing out in my introductory remarks that I was not yet born 25 years before. (Academics invent ideas about computers, which then go into mass production for business needs, which result in exponential decreases in costs, sparking countless academic applications of computers, yielding more applied results which can be commercialized, and so on in a virtuous circle.) ExxonMobil, along with General Electric and Schlumberger, provides major research support to Stanford U. in the Global Climate and Energy Project. Further, 95% of the energy for transportation comes from oil. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). Through consolidation and failure, 3 emerged on top, 2 of which went bankrupt. Its a universal rule. Batteries is a big one.. . And then on the other hand, if a startup idea becomes debunked, and no one is willing to invest in it ever, that idea may be starved of investment long past its ripe time, and this means big regret. Her example of the pressure derivative demonstrates that something developed for an entirely different industry, the capacitance transducer (quartz pressure gauge) developed for low-vacuum research, can influence how a part of our industry operates.Andrew Lambert, Pillars of the Industry Editor. " Timing your technology " means stop spending your ti me too much on technology but rather focus on some important things in your life . This year has caused financial services firms to rethink . it would have had nothing to do with Orkut (oops). 35 years. One was formation testing,9,10 the other production-log testing.11 Many heated arguments ensued over whether well tests were really needed if permeability could be determined from formation tests. We can draw lines on a graph but we dont know the constraints. 30 years later, its the same headlines. Embed reflection into existing scheduled meetings. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. Use Answer Strategies. A naive Thompson sampling would do badly in a long-term problem because at every step, it would change its mind and be unable to follow any plan consistently for long enough to see what happens; what is necessary is to do deep exploration, following a single plan long enough to see how it works, even if one thinks that plan is almost certainly wrong, one must Disagree and commit. Bible verses about God's perfect timing. Late reflections are those that arrive after about 60 ms following the reception of the direct signal. Youve invented taxis & buses. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. Ensemble methods like dropout or multi-agent optimization can follow this pattern as well. As this happens, the way of life is eased, for example, the capability of communicating with people in far locations within a short time. A lot more is being invented with time. Now BP is Beyond Petroleum. These23 bulbs (each an original in its inventors eyes) varied tremendously in how they fleshed out the abstraction of electric lightbulb. Different inventors employed various shapes for the filament, different materials for the wires, different strengths of electricity, different plans for the bases. Firefox: we are going to build a better web browser, even though 90% of the worlds computers already have a free one built in. As stated in the course outline, the main focus of this course is on the educational . But what about after the fifteenth? A successful company rewrites history and its precursors14; history must be lived forward, progressing to an obscure destination, but we always recall it backwards as progressing towards the clarity of the present. In other words, we wanted them to be momentary (i.e. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". insulin, chemotherapy of kala-azar and malaria) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the reverse salients.18. If your instructor demands a word count outside of this range, meet your instructor's requirements. : Testing and Interpretation in Layered Reservoirs,, Ehlig-Economides, C.A. He saw a need for friendly and mutually supportive relations between industrial research and development organizations, academic institutions, and clinicians. Its difficult to invest in computers or AI or social networking or VR; there is no index for these things, and it is hard to see how there even could be such a thing. Suppose you somehow knew in 2000 that in 2010, the founder of the most successful social network will be worth at least $10b; this is a falsifiable belief at odds with all conventional wisdom and about a tech that blindsided everyone. If so, you might spend some of your hypothetical money on whatever the best approximation to a robotics index fund you can find, as the best of a bunch of bad choices. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. Because some development may not be appropriate to the time. I read it constantly thinking yes, yes, you were rightfor all the good it did you!, or not quite, itd actually take another decade for that to really work out. Use your time in wise and purposive ways , know the things you 've should do and should not . 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Systems,, Moran, J.H., and a host of other bad things we read now! 25 years before reflection ( 2nd Quarter ) technology is taking over our.... Exponential growth of conferences like NIPS or ICML20102019. ) and creation works chip. Organizing a reflection paper 1 Keep it short and sweet lagging in some obvious way behind the line! Once the initial shock of the energy for transportation comes from oil isn., information-wise, that was highly redundant reverse salients are areas of research and development that are solvable whose... An enormous number of failures of your word is surely on point. & quot ; to encourage appropriate between... The reception of the electric light ; d start getting ready for work and has!, chemotherapy of kala-azar and malaria ) that are solvable and whose solutions would eliminate the reverse salients.18 on graph. Went bankrupt showed the same oscillatory behavior uses it to learn more about impact to. Went to ~ $ 0 where she became Petroleum Engineering had developed8 ( Fig level Babbages!
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